Projected Changes in Energy Consumption
There is approximately a 115 PJ gap to close in the energy use of the 2050 Business as Planned versus the Low Carbon Scenario. Much of the strategy to close this gap relies on energy efficiency measures, renewable energy uptake, and fuel switching and energy storage.
In the Low Carbon Scenario, 50% of the residential stock and 60% of the commercial stock have air source heat pumps by 2050. The projected decline in natural gas consumption for space heating is the result of both increased efficiencies in buildings, and fuel switching space heating away from natural gas to heat pumps and district energy. By 2030, 2040 and 2050 natural gas consumption for space heating in residential and non-residential buildings declines by 60%, 84% and 16% respectively, all over 2011 levels. To read more about the Low Carbon Scenario, refer to TransformTO: Climate Action for a Healthy, Equitable and Prosperous Toronto - Report #2 - The Pathway to a Low Carbon Future.